Tightness of National Polling

Many have commented on the apparent closeness of the race in what seems to be a Democratic year. At this point, Bill Clinton had a giant lead over incumbent George H. W. Bush as did many other Democratic contenders in their respective elections. On average, Obama has only been 1-3 points ahead on the Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls, raising questions about Obama's credibility and ability to win the White House.

I'd take the polls with a grain of salt, however. When polling organisations do their polling, they tend to do it with "likely voters," or people who have voted before and likely to come out again; polls have generally ignored the young first time voters that defined Obama in the primaries and led him to victory. Could it be on election day, we'll see Obama pull upsets in many swing states and weak republican states because the young vote factor was ignored? It's probable.

Obama has ran gargantuan registration drives throughout the country, and I doubt those new voters are being polled. We'll have to wait and see until Election Day to find out, but it's something to think about.